fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts

r/fivethirtyeight. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. You can't imitate a worldview. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. NEW TOWN . Bot Love was created by Diego Senior. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. All rights reserved. The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. They consider how much. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. . They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. Saturday, February 25, 2023. robert kraft granddaughter. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. - In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. June 2, 2016. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. MANAGER'S SALARY. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. Thats Changing. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Galen Druke is the host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . Edit your transcribed text. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. RSS Loading. In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. BOLIVAR The executive director of the Stark-Tuscarawas-Wayne Joint Solid Waste Management District is going to resign from the position and will then be rehired. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. [00:00:19] They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. Feb. 25, 2021. info. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. Find us at ThisDayPod.com. Galen speaks with him. No products in the cart. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known.

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