bellwether counties epoch times

Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. I quit voting once out of the union.. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Its just stupid, she said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Please read our comments policy before commenting. With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. I trust the system implicitly, he said. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. I think all politicians are crooks. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties Theres too much mishandling, she said. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. But thats not the picture I look at. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. We need election reform.. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Our roads need to be fixed. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 - The Epoch Times She shook her head at the high price of gas. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Medicare is becoming a joke. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. This is a high farming community.. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Its gone, Jacobs said. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine And we just want that to continue. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Required fields are marked *. Blaine County. That is a very good thing to have. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Republican Gov. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Its horrible. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. He cares about the American people.. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. SACRAMENTO . Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. And it can happen.. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. . Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Im not happy with either party. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). bellwether counties epoch times Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off.

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